How to spot the trends of emerging artists

 

Art Market Today

How to spot the trends of emerging artists

 Emerging artists are tricky because they can represent a walk into the unknown. Their Artist Market Values (“AMVs”) surge into rarified air and can seemingly reverse sharply, without warning.  Because they do not have much auction performance data – and what is available may be inflated - understanding established patterns of behavior is paramount.  There are many examples of emerging artist AMV performance, and they provide a basis that will enable you to translate today’s AMV into tomorrow’s ones.

AMVs are built on what we term Key Performance Metrics (“KPMs”) and taken together they provide a picture of why AMV is what it is. The typical emerging artist profile at auction will look something like this:

• Sale prices significantly higher than presale estimates.
• Sale of all offered lots.
• Outperforming similar emerging artists.  
• Relative scarcity of lots offered at auction.

For an emerging artist, you should expect one of the following trajectories.

Type 1: The Typical Case

This is the most common trajectory for an emerging artist- a rapid ascent to a one, no more than two, Auction Cycle peak, followed by a sharp correction, and consistency thereafter.

• Downside risk at the peak is the norm not the exception.  
• Type 1 artists are vulnerable to a sharp and deep correction.
• Correcting into a cold market is common and climbing out by no means assured, likely ushering in what could be a new normal.

Type 2: The Suddenly Arrived Case

A new trajectory has emerged. It applies to artists with no previous auction track records who suddenly arrive on the auction market. This is the characteristic of many artists born in the early 1990s.  In these cases, what you see is no Type 1 buildup, but sudden, frenzied performance followed by a gradual decrease. 

• The out-of-nowhere surge is accompanied by higher than Type 1 AMVs. 
• This is a high impact artist with landing spot too early to call. Even with a Type 1 pronounced dip, there is a real possibility of a bounce-back.

Type 3: The Best Case

In the rarest of occasions, an emerging artist defies convention with an overheated AMV trajectory that holds up far longer.

While there is always a risk that an emerging artist will go from “next big thing” to “disappeared from the scene” quickly, holding AMV for over a year is a very good sign.

• In this case, the overheated AMV persists over multiple periods.
• Auction Cycle to Auction Cycle changes are relatively more gradual and drops do not signal entry cold market territory.

Emerging artists represent the art market’s high risk/high reward bet. When making long-term decisions, avoid the hype. The art market is littered with the remains of the next “big” artist who was destined to become the next Warhol. Be wary, and always know where that artist is in the likely trajectory.

If you have questions on a particular emerging artist, please get in touch.  

The Post-War & Contemporary Art Market – Strong and Steady in May

 

Art Market Today

The Post-War & Contemporary Art Market – Strong and Steady in May

The major New York auctions were held in May, so it was a big month on the auction calendar. And the news was good.  Artist Market Values (“AMVs”) held steady and there are no signs of a softening market - or a correction - in the near term.

The market tracked to form:

• Index indicators - The AAA 100, AAA Blue-Chip 35 and AAA Conceptual 32 behaved slightly differently, with the AAA 100 holding; the AAA Blue-Chip 35 bumping up a point; and the AAA Conceptual 32 dipping two points.  All within the norm.
• Bellwether Artist Indicators – These four highly traded blue-chip artists stayed within established AMV ranges.

We expect more of the same in June with the big end of month London auctions, followed in early July by the usual summer auction hibernation.

Index Indicators - Observations

• The art market in May.  Near-term stability is a good sign.
• A flattening out of the AAA 100 and AAA Blue-Chip 35 is not a bad thing. Consistency and some incremental growth mean staying power.
• AAA Conceptual 32 decrease was no surprise.  Conceptual artists have slightly underperformed and we do not see this changing any time soon.

Bellwether Artists - Observations

• Consistency into June conveys sustainability.  That any changes to AMVs through May were modest indicates that the market will maintainable its stride going into the fall auctions.
• Nothing is amiss. Nothing right now suggests stormy weather ahead.  
• Despite a slight dip, Kusama’s AMV is remains at the high end of her range.  A dip of this sort should come as no surprise because blue-chip artists tend to revert to normal. We do expect her AMV to remain at the higher end of her range.     

Our next art market update will be in early July to wrap up the 1^st Half of 2021. In the meantime, we have a bunch of indexes available. Just ask; if it is not in our stable, we could develop one for you.